October 23, 2015 - A deep upper level trough across the southern and central plains is helping tap moisture from the eastern Pacific and Gulf of Mexico. As a result, widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect most of North Central and Northeast Texas as well as Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas today. This rainfall should continue into tonight with the heaviest rainfall expected to remain across the northern half of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas. Rainfall amounts from 2 to 4 inches will be possible across this region through tonight with lesser amounts across Northern Louisiana and the southern half of Northeast Texas south of the IH20 Corridor.
Saturday into Saturday night the Western half of the four state region, including all of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and extreme Northwest Louisiana will see the greatest rainfall chances with an addition 1 to 3 inches possible Saturday morning through early Sunday morning.
Sunday into Sunday night we should begin to see moisture streaming northward from Major Hurricane Patricia which is currently a Category 5 hurricane across the west coast of Mexico. This moisture will be lifted northward across Mexico and into the Northwest Gulf of Mexico and will interact with another upper level trough moving through the Texas Hill Country on Sunday. The result will be another round of locally heavy rainfall across more of the four state region. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible Sunday morning through Monday morning with greater amounts possible depending on the troughs interaction with the moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia. (Note: as of Friday morning Hurricane Patricia is a dangerous Category 5 hurricane with 200mph winds and an internal pressure of 880mb. She is expected to cross into Mexico today, weaken as she crosses the mountains, and enter Texas as a weak sub-tropical system. Movement is north/northwest at 12mph).
Despite the lack of rainfall across much of the region over the last several months, the potential is there for excessive heavy rainfall across portions of the four state region today through this weekend into early next week.
Flash flood watches may become necessary for portions of the region this weekend into early next week.
